Amidst the formidable sway of surging US yields and a robust dollar, Gold faces defensive battles in the foreseeable future, unless there is a significant surge in geopolitical tensions, as indicated by economists at HSBC.
The economists at HSBC have pointed out that a potential surge in geopolitical risks could serve as a lifeline for sustaining Gold prices. However, they express skepticism regarding the longevity of the current rally. The recent downtrend in oil prices over the past three days is highlighted as a crucial factor in this assessment. The easing of oil prices, according to Bloomberg on 24th October 2023, could potentially dampen the demand for Gold driven by geopolitical risks.
The analysis underscores the historical sensitivity of Gold to US real yields, emphasizing that despite occasional deviations, this relationship has resurfaced and is likely to exert additional pressure on Gold prices.
Moreover, with the anticipation of continued strength in the US dollar, the economists predict that any rallies in Gold may remain limited and could potentially lead to a decline in XAU/USD.
In an optimistic light, the report recognizes that escalating geopolitical tensions and trade risks continue to play a vital role in engineering Gold rallies, and they are expected to maintain their upward trajectory throughout 2024.