In a series of audacious forecasts, Saxo Bank has outlined what it calls its annual “Outrageous Predictions,” which, though improbable, occasionally come to fruition. This year’s predictions focus on the dramatic shifts in the global financial landscape expected in 2025, including a severe depreciation of the US dollar and an explosive rise in the cryptocurrency market. The bank, however, has made it clear that these predictions do not represent its official market forecasts but rather explore unlikely scenarios that could have a significant impact on the world economy.
Saxo Bank’s “Outrageous Predictions” Overview
Saxo Bank is known for its annual “Outrageous Predictions” report, which highlights potential market developments that seem extreme or unlikely at first glance but have the potential to materialize under certain circumstances. These predictions often challenge conventional market thinking and push the boundaries of typical financial forecasting.
This year, Saxo’s forecast includes a major downturn for the US dollar (USD) in 2025, alongside the continued rapid growth of cryptocurrencies. The bank also predicts that the cryptocurrency market will reach a total market capitalization of $10 trillion—four times its current size—while the USD will experience a sharp 30% drop in value against gold.
Saxo’s Chief Macro Strategist, John Hardy, has called these predictions “outrageous” but underlined that they are intended to spark debate and provide an alternative view of the future. The predictions, although bold, are seen as a reflection of Saxo’s attempt to understand and forecast the long-term risks and opportunities that lie ahead in the global economy.
A Troubled Future for the US Dollar
One of the most provocative elements of Saxo’s forecast is the prediction of a severe decline in the US dollar. After a period of strengthening during Donald Trump’s first presidency, the dollar is expected to face challenges under a potential second Trump administration in 2025. Saxo’s analysts believe that a combination of aggressive tariffs on imports and budget cuts by the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), under the leadership of Elon Musk, will severely damage the USD.
This bold prediction suggests that the policies implemented by the Trump administration will undermine the global role of the dollar. As Saxo’s Hardy explains, these actions would likely “cut off the needed supply of dollars to keep the wheels of the global USD system turning,” which could ironically lead to a short-term spike in the dollar’s value. However, the long-term impact would be negative, as the USD could experience a 20% decline against major currencies and an even steeper 30% drop against gold.
While the prediction about the USD’s future is grim, Saxo does not foresee the immediate collapse of the dollar. Rather, the bank’s analysis suggests a slow and steady decline in the dollar’s purchasing power, driven by both domestic policy choices and global economic dynamics. The impact on global trade, particularly in countries that rely on the USD for transactions, could be significant, according to Saxo’s report.
Cryptocurrencies: The Big Winner
While the US dollar faces challenges, Saxo predicts that the cryptocurrency market will experience explosive growth. The bank forecasts that the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies could surge to $10 trillion by 2025, a fourfold increase from its current value.
The primary drivers behind this growth, according to Saxo, are the increasing adoption of blockchain technology, a broader acceptance of cryptocurrencies in mainstream financial markets, and the growing recognition of digital assets as a hedge against inflation and economic instability.
“The implications for the USD are dire for trade around the world,” Hardy noted. “As the supply of dollars tightens, cryptocurrencies will increasingly serve as an alternative medium of exchange, particularly in regions with volatile currencies.”
This prediction highlights Saxo’s view that, as the global financial system evolves, cryptocurrencies could play a more prominent role in international trade and finance. This could particularly benefit digital currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are often seen as safe-haven assets during periods of economic uncertainty.
Interestingly, Saxo’s forecast recalls its 2017 prediction about the rise of Bitcoin, when the cryptocurrency was still in its early stages. At the time, Bitcoin had just begun to experience massive growth, a phenomenon that Saxo correctly anticipated. The bank’s confidence in its ability to predict the crypto market’s trajectory may lend additional weight to its current predictions.
GBP to Reclaim Pre-Brexit Levels
In contrast to the bleak outlook for the USD, Saxo forecasts a strong recovery for the British pound (GBP) in 2025. The bank predicts that the GBP will climb to 1.27 against the euro, a level not seen since before the Brexit referendum in 2016. Saxo attributes this rebound to a number of factors, including the successful resolution of the Brexit process, stronger economic performance in the UK, and the Bank of England’s monetary policies.
This forecast suggests that the GBP could benefit from improved investor sentiment and growing confidence in the UK’s post-Brexit economic stability. As the UK continues to redefine its position in global trade and politics, the pound’s recovery could serve as a signal of the country’s economic resurgence.
Nvidia: The Tech Giant’s Monumental Growth
Another bold prediction in Saxo’s report centers on Nvidia, the leading chip maker currently dominating the stock market. Saxo predicts that Nvidia’s growth will be driven by the company’s focus on artificial intelligence (AI) through its Blackwell chip, which will likely revolutionize the AI industry.
According to Saxo, Nvidia’s stock price could surge above $250 per share, and the company’s profits will surpass Apple’s record $105 billion in 2025. This growth, however, is expected to come at a cost. As Nvidia’s market capitalization balloons, it could become the subject of regulatory scrutiny, with concerns over its potential monopoly in the semiconductor industry.
“Nvidia will double its market cap and become twice the size of Apple,” Hardy predicted. “In the process, Apple and other tech giants will face growing pressure, as their profitability takes a hit from the enormous investments required to keep up with the AI gold rush.”
This forecast suggests that Nvidia’s dominance in the tech industry will continue to grow as the demand for AI and machine learning technologies skyrockets. While Nvidia’s success is expected to outpace that of its competitors, the company’s rapid growth could raise concerns among regulators, potentially slowing its momentum.
A Shift in Global Economic Power
Saxo’s “Outrageous Predictions” for 2025 reflect a significant shift in the global economic landscape. While the US dollar faces significant risks from domestic policies and economic pressures, cryptocurrencies are expected to thrive, with the market capitalization of digital currencies potentially surpassing $10 trillion. Meanwhile, the British pound is predicted to rebound, and Nvidia’s growth could reshape the technology sector.
These predictions, though highly speculative, highlight some of the key trends that could shape the global economy in the coming years. As digital assets gain traction and the world moves toward greater reliance on AI and blockchain technology, Saxo’s forecasts underscore the potential for dramatic changes in global finance.
Conclusion
While Saxo Bank’s annual “Outrageous Predictions” are designed to provoke thought and spark debate, they provide valuable insights into the potential risks and opportunities facing the global economy. The dramatic forecast for the US dollar and the cryptocurrency market underscores the importance of closely monitoring geopolitical and economic developments in the coming years. As always, Saxo’s predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, but they offer a glimpse into a possible future where cryptocurrencies rise, traditional currencies falter, and technology companies like Nvidia lead the charge in the next wave of economic growth.
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